Poll: Booker Has Massive Lead in Senate Race

The poll, which is the first to survey likely voters in the Aug. 13 primary, finds Booker does well among all Democratic groups, including those in opponents’ hometowns, and questions concerning Booker’s experience and dedication to Democratic core values are not big factors among potential voters.

Booker claims 49 percent support among likely voters polled. Rep. Frank Pallone (D-6) was a distant second with 12 percent, followed by Rep. Rush Holt (D-12) with 8 percent and General Assembly Speaker Sheila Oliver (D-34) with 3 percent, while 28 percent were undecided.

Booker’s support is nearly the same when broken down by gender, with 50 percent of men and 48 percent of women surveyed saying they support Booker.

He has 48 percent support among Caucasian voters, compared to 16 percent for Pallone, 11 percent for Holt and 2 percent for Oliver.

Booker has 55 percent support from African-American voters. Oliver leaps to second in this group, with 7 percent, followed by Pallone and Holt, who each have 3 percent.

Booker is almost as popular in the southern portion of the state as he is in the north. He has 53 percent support in the north, and 50 percent in the south.

His lowest numbers are in the central part of the state, where Holt and Pallone call home, but Booker still has a commanding lead with 39 percent of the vote. Pallone has 19 percent, and Holt garners 16 percent of the vote.

Pollers asked voters who they would vote for if their preferred candidate wasn’t running. Without Holt, Pallone’s support increases by 2 percent and Booker’s increases by 4. Without Pallone, Holt’s support increases by 3 percent and Booker’s increases by 5.

“Cory Booker’s lead appears to be impregnable,” Monmouth University Polling Institute Director Patrick Murray said in a statement released with the poll. “There is very little in the poll that shows a path for the other candidates to overtake him.”

The Polling Institute expects between 200,000 and 400,000 Democrats to turn out for August’s primary. There is no precedent for an August primary, but the poll shows 47 percent of voters with a consistent primary voting history and greater awareness of the upcoming primary support Booker. Pallone receives 15 percent support, followed by Holt with 10, Oliver with 8 and 20 percent undecided.

Prospective voters value experience as the most important factor, as it received 34 percent, followed by 22 percent who value being true to Democratic core values; 21 percent who value bringing fresh ideas to Washington; and 18 percent who value greater attention being paid to New Jersey. 

Of those who value experience, 42 percent value Booker, followed by Pallone with 15 percent, Holt with 10 percent and Oliver with 4 percent.

Those who favor core Democratic values also favor Booker by 49 percent, followed by Pallone with 14 percent, Holt with 11 percent and Oliver with 4 percent.

Democratic voters surveyed were split on Republican Gov. Chris Christie, with 43 percent favoring him and 42 percent exhibiting an unfavorable opinion of the governor. Undecided voters surveyed have a more favorable opinion of Christie, at 46 percent to 29 percent unfavorable.

Despite Booker’s leads, 41 percent of voters say all four candidates hold the same basic policy positions, with 25 percent seeing a difference. Only 14 percent would be upset if their chosen candidate didn’t win, with 41 percent being somewhat upset and another 41 percent not being upset at all.

“At the end of the day, New Jersey Democrats would be satisfied with any of these candidates as their nominee for U.S. Senate.  They are simply going for the one they feel they know best,” Murray said in the release.

The Monmouth University Poll was conducted by telephone from July 11-14 with 403 registered Democrats who are likely to vote in the August primary election for U.S. Senate.   

The general election is scheduled for Oct. 16.