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Not Again: Busy 2013 Hurricane Season Forecast

Legendary forecaster in Wednesday prediction: above-average 2013 Atlantic basin hurricane season due to 'anomalous' ocean warming

As the Jersey Shore continues its recovery from Superstorm Sandy, a Colorado State University professor who is widely considered a national authority on tropical weather prediction has released his team's first forecast for the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season – and the news isn't good for coastal residents.

This year's hurricane season, which begins June 1, will be above average, the team led by Dr. William Gray predicted in a forecast issued Wednesday.

The forecast team calls for 18 named storms during the hurricane season, nine of which are expected to become hurricanes and four of those major hurricanes, meaning they will reach category three status or higher.

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Storms receive a name when they reach tropical storm status, meaning they pack 39 m.p.h. sustained winds and retain tropical characteristics. They become hurricanes when sustained winds reach 74 m.p.h. Category three hurricanes pack winds of 111 m.p.h. or higher, according to the widely adopted Saffir/Simpson scale which determines hurricane strength.

"The tropical Atlantic has anomalously warmed over the past several months, and it appears that the chances of an El Niño event this summer and fall are unlikely," thus increasing the chance of a busy season, said Phil Klotzbach, who authored the forecast with Gray as part of the the CSU Tropical Meteorology Project.

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El Niño, a warming of ocean water off the west coast of South America, often depresses the Atlantic hurricane season due to higher instances of wind shear as storms develop. In its absence, the Atlantic season can be more active.

The team’s annual predictions are intended to provide a best estimate of activity to be experienced during the upcoming season, not an exact measure, a statement from the university said. The team does have data to back up their prediction, however.

Five hurricane seasons since 1900 exhibited oceanic and atmospheric characteristics most similar to those observed in February and March 2013: 1915, 1952, 1966, 1996 and 2004. Four out of the five years had above-average hurricane activity, the team said.

The team predicts that tropical cyclone activity in 2013 will be about 175 percent of the average season. By comparison, 2012 experienced tropical cyclone activity that was 131 percent of the average season.

The forecast includes a 72 percent chance of a major hurricane impacting the east coast in 2013, up from an average of 52 percent in the period between 1900 and 2000.

The team will offer updated forecasts June 2 and Aug. 3.

The entire, 34 page forecast can be downloaded from the university's website.


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