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UPDATE: Coastal Flood Watch Remains In Effect for Wednesday Nor'easter

Toms River and other towns prepare for flooding; 60 m.p.h. wind gusts, 16-foot seas offshore possible in strong nor'easter

A few days into the month, March will come in like a lion at the Jersey Shore, where a nor'easter is forecast to spur flooding, high winds and extremely rough surf.

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has issued a coastal flood watch that remains in effect for the entire Shore area, as well as a storm watch and small craft advisory for offshore waters.

The storm is forecast to begin as a rain event in coastal areas after 8 a.m. Wednesday and continue through late Thursday, with the potential for the precipitation to turn to snow.

Toms River Police Chief Michael Mastronardy said he would meet Tuesday with the township’s public works department to discuss possible preparations, according to NJ.com.

Toms River took substantial damage during Sandy — 67 people currently live in the Ortley Beach section of town, where there are 2,400 homes — but Mastronardy is "cautiously optimistic" the township’s newly built dunes will protect from whatever surges this storm produces, according to NJ.com.

There are parts of town where dunes were not rebuilt on private swaths of the shore, and those areas are especially at risk for flooding, Mastronardy said.

Forecast models are largely unsure of the rain-snow line for the storm.

But the big story in the Shore area, already weakened by Superstorm Sandy, will be the potential for "moderate" coastal flooding, prompting the NWS to issue a coastal flood watch.

The great potential for flooding will come at the Wednesday afternoon and Thursday morning high tides. In central Barnegat Bay, in the area of Seaside Heights, high tide will occur 2:28 p.m. Wednesday afternoon and 3:01 a.m. Thursday morning.

The storm will also bring the potential for strong winds, NWS said in an advisrory issued Tuesday morning. The nor'easter could pack gusts of up to 60 m.p.h. with sustained winds near 40 m.p.h. in coastal areas.

Offshore, a storm watch has been issued that carries a prediction of wave height between 10 to 15 feet Wednesday and 11 to 16 feet Wednesday night. Wave heights at local beaches will range from 7 to 15 feet, the forecast said.

ortleysmellslikebunker March 5, 2013 at 11:43 am
I don't think these "dunes" aka piles of sand they rant and rave about are going to due much.Dunes have vegetation in them.Bunch of idiots really.Should of at least put done jetty rocks first
Joe B March 5, 2013 at 12:54 pm
@its over: learn to spell even if you are going to post a worthless rant. Be a part of the solution instead of the problem, your acerbic rant only serves to demonstrate your dour personality rathsn demonstrate a subjective opinion. Lighten up already.
bernie March 5, 2013 at 12:54 pm
Actually the dunes that hes speaking have dozens of xmas trees burried inside them. The problem areas are the ones the ocean frint property owners WOULDNT sign the easements allowing access to rebuild
charlie March 5, 2013 at 01:09 pm
Bradley Beach has a seawall made of concrete and pavers and did quite well during the storm. In comparison, the towns with the boardwalks had lots of damage.
Dan March 5, 2013 at 01:20 pm
Why is everyone so pessimistic ... shut up of you hate it so much here leave
Ri-Brickulous! March 5, 2013 at 01:28 pm
After last weeks strong ENE winds, the water on the Metedeconck remains at a very high level. The displacement/drainage issues are very serious, God knows how bad it will become if Mantoloking is breached again.
Martin March 5, 2013 at 01:38 pm
Christie, use EMINENT DOMAIN to get easements for building dunes and replenishing beach sand all along the coastline. No one's precious "view" is more important than my life and my house!
The unprotected oceanfront gaps let Sandy's surge through the barrier island, into Barnegat Bay and into my house on the mainland. Partial protection won't do. Do it all. Are you listening, governor?
Brian Fitzpatrick March 5, 2013 at 01:46 pm
Sorry to burst the bubble of the folks here at Patch, but the forecasted storm is NOT a nor'easter. According to the Weather Channel and other places, nor'easters form either in the Atlantic Ocean or the Gulf of Mexico and track northeastward along the coast, then reach into New England. This storm is coming from the midwest.
Just because it will impact the northeastern United States does not make it a nor'easter. Just sayin'.
MOONPOOL March 5, 2013 at 01:59 pm
Mother nature is rebuilding the shore all by her self. She wants her beach back. Nothing we do will stop her. So now. The government. Wants to pour more money in to the hole. Millions of dollars are going to waste. This was not even a category 2 storm. What will they do if a category 3 rolled up the coast?
mother nature. Wants her island back and there is nothing we cam do to stop her.
Quaghogdigger March 5, 2013 at 02:06 pm
and that is exactly what is/will happen...as the low comes across from the midwest, it will head toward the NC/VA border and redevelop in the coastal waters there and move north east up the coast. The term Nor'easter has nothing to do with geographic location, but does have to do with wind direction, and we are looking at 12 to 18 hours of strong, east, then northeast, then north/northeast winds....The 3 am high tide thursday morning will be the concern time for flood prone areas, as models are showing gusts to 60 at the coast and up to 70 just offshore.
Laura Ann March 5, 2013 at 02:08 pm
I am going to go out on a limb here and say....its going to RAIN!!!
Ri-Brickulous! March 5, 2013 at 02:10 pm
The Weather Channel is calling it "Winter storm Saturn". Thankfully no one else is joining their feeble attempts at branding these storms.
A Resident March 5, 2013 at 02:14 pm
Just curious, but when the bay floods in the next 2 days (and it will) but there are no breaches along the ocean front....will everyone (anyone) finally look at the real issue and stop blaming everything on lack of dunes? You have 2 inlets where lots of water rushes in during a storm....that water comes in and has to go somewhere....ya, floods the area....when the storm ends, the waters slowly goes back out the inlets.
A Resident March 5, 2013 at 02:17 pm
Yup
Brickresident March 5, 2013 at 02:29 pm
They should use a empty lot and make a new inlet near the Mantoloking Bridge.
Brian Fitzpatrick March 5, 2013 at 02:33 pm
If this were a nor'easter, the Weather Channel and the National Weather Service would be calling it that, which is important, since the NWS is known for it's technical definitions of weather events. While the rest of us refer to Sandy when it hit New Jersey as a hurricane, the NWS does not, citing changes in meteorological conditions that no longer merited calling it a hurricane.
The National Weather Service, as of this writing, is not calling it a nor'easter, simply referring to it as a Winter Storm. Regardless of where it redevelops, it did not originate in either the Gulf of Mexico or the Atlantic, and is therefore not a nor'easter.
ortleysmellslikebunker March 5, 2013 at 02:38 pm
Joe b, your not a local so shut up.i respond to these blogs by phone so thanks for correcting my spelling you idiot yuppie.quaghogdigger is correct.
Glenn March 5, 2013 at 02:51 pm
The 5 foot rise in water in just 30 minutes during Sandy did not come from the 2 inlets, it came from the breaches. I live 3 miles from the ocean and never saw flooding before Sandy. Trust me it's the breaches.
Donna Griffin March 5, 2013 at 02:59 pm
Martin - I've not heard any oceanfront property owners objecting to dune construction because it will impede their "view." It has to do with the additional stipulations added by Toms River, in particular, concerning unlimited beach access. A good portion of the private beach dune structure was replaced stronger than the public beach areas of Ortley. Don't know if you've seen the area, but at least at the southern end of OB, those dunes were built back with fencing and backfilling with pine trees. Such is not the case in the area rebuilt by the town.
Quaghogdigger March 5, 2013 at 04:04 pm
The term 'Nor'easter' is more of a local (northeast) term, and really does not have an official NWS definition......A nor'easter is a macro-scale storm along the upper East Coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada; it gets its name from the direction the wind is coming from....Those living here for awhile know what a nor'easter is, and with the latest models now showing it stalling off of delaware coast, we are in for at least a 24 hr. lashing.
jerseyswamps March 5, 2013 at 04:16 pm
Seems like you're all debating whether mother nature hits us in the face with a board or a plank.
Spooner March 5, 2013 at 04:20 pm
One of the interesting characteristics of this forth coming storm, is that we have one of the ingredients that we had with Sandy: a large high pressure system off the Canadian East coast in the North Atlantic, which will hold down the low pressure(storm) system from moving northeast and out to sea. Don't think this will effect Ocean County north, with the possible exception of prolonged high winds and snow/rain in the higher latitudes into Friday.
KingNeptune March 5, 2013 at 05:07 pm
Agreed, the root system of the vegetation holds the dunes in place. Piles of sand without them are pretty much useless.
Martin March 5, 2013 at 06:47 pm
Now there are flood warnings with every little storm. Clean out the bay (1 million+ cubic feet of sand, houses, boats, cars, tables, debris). Stop the floods, let boaters navigate it and generate revenues again. Patch, please update us on the bay dredging project ASAP.
Sandy overwashed the barrier island, overfilling the bay and flooding my house on the mainland. Gov. Christie should use EMINENT DOMAIN to get easements for building dunes and replenishing beaches. Nobody's precious view is more important than my safety and my house. Meanwhile, FEMA's abusive power must be curbed. Why should NJ's money bail out that federal bureaucracy from its Katrina debt? A better use of its money would be to protect the coastline with dunes, seawalls and reinforced beaches, rather than making 100,000 people raise their homes at $100,000 each or pay $30,000 a year for insurance. Congress must amend the Biggert-Waters Act so that FEMA doesn't destroy the Shore with its erroneous maps, over-kill house-raising elevations and exorbitant annual insurance costs. FEMA has caused more damage than Sandy did. Join the fight. ==> MEETING Sat. Mar. 9th, 3-4 PM, Silverton First Aid Squad, 86 Maine (like the state) St., Toms River. Property owners from all towns are welcome. www.facebook.com/StopFemaNow www.StopFemaNow.com Twitter #StopFemaNow
Martin March 5, 2013 at 06:49 pm
Dredging update: http://tomsriver.patch.com/articles/barnegat-bay-recovery-work-set-to-begin
Not in time for tomorrow's storm!
Gilford Local March 5, 2013 at 07:20 pm
All the debris in the bay has nothing to do with flooding. Remember Displacement? If you add 1 million+ cubic feet of sand, houses, boats, cars, tables, debris it will simply push water out throught the inlets not, fill the bay up like a bathtub when you sit in it. We are flooding from these Noreasters because you have and a strong N/NE wind longer than a tide cycle pushing water inland. A high tide fills the bay and the winds prevent it from draining on the following low. Then another high tide comes in causing everything to flood. The first high tide is usually not that bad. That's why you always have to watch the second high tide in an event like this. And this time will be Thursday 3am. Good luck and be safe everyone.
hoop March 5, 2013 at 08:30 pm
Dredging the bay will make all of the difference when the bay is filled wth sand there is no ather place to go but over the bulkheads and its not gonna run out the inlets while the tide is racing in and high northease,east or south east winds.
tlc March 5, 2013 at 09:16 pm
I was told that the recent high water in the bay had to do with the fact that the inlets have been deepened. Sandie's storm surge pushed or moved a lot of the sand that kept much of the ocean water from entering the bay with each tide.
shorecorruption March 6, 2013 at 04:01 am
Put Jersey barriers under them.

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Mark Story Jenks June 19, 2013 at 03:27 pm
I guess not everyone appreciates the crow of a Rooster.
Lelenore Lep June 19, 2013 at 03:51 pm
I agree with quiet time. Def consideration of my neighbors if they have a sleeping baby or back yardRead More party. We surely try to respect that.
KC June 19, 2013 at 04:55 pm
Funny Lelenore, I don't see that there are very many rules and regs. If it were elected it would notRead More be an infringement. I respect your opinion, but still feel six day time hours out of an entire week is not a lot to ask. If nothing else, would love to see a ban on gas leaf blowers. There are towns that have that in place. The mowers are not really IMHO that intrusive, but the leaf blowers and concrete cutters are another matter. Trouble is, people herebouts think they are in Montana and often are as you say, on 100 by 100 lots. What is the point of having all of this grass and trees if one never has the serenity about them to enjoy it? I think the ill effects of suburban noise pollution on health - blood pressure, aggression, release of the chemical cortisol etc. are well documented. Over a twenty five year period in time in Brick I find that this has become a real quality of life issue. At one point in my life I resided in mid town Manhattan and ya know what - being high up IT WAS QUIETER! Jackson? I don't think so. Doesn't Brielle have such an elective ordinance?
GMA June 18, 2013 at 04:23 pm
It was suppose to move next to the next liquor store behind Harbor Freight on Hooper.But,they neverRead More did.And when we pass it,it looks like they aren't even working on that side of the building.We miss that place for their deli dept.
Fred y June 19, 2013 at 06:20 am
They are waiting for the new store to get dirty and smell. It needs to be run down a little bit forRead More it to function properly.
can't say who June 19, 2013 at 05:44 pm
Right next to the liquor store. The reason it is taking so long is the politics of Acropolis andRead More Pat Botazzi. They kept the liquor store from opening for TWO years by controlling the planning board and caused the store owner HUNDREDS OF THOUSANS OF DOLLARES WITH COURT FIGHTS. Acropolis LOST THE COURT FIGHTS BUT CONTINUES TO BEAT UP ON THE LIQUOR STORE'S NEW TENNANT AS RETROBUTION Now Acropolis can play the code enforcement game and still get his happiness as a bigoted soon to be ex mayor and not a nice man. How about denying this. It is going to be a great store with the same owners and great food IF Acropolis doesn't have them go bankrupt due to him before they even open.
Pictured in this lunch combo is Applebee’s new Signature Turkey Avocado Sandwich and Chicken Tortilla Soup.
KC June 18, 2013 at 04:41 pm
Looks good, but got sick as a dog from their food years back. Did I ever return? Nope.
anonymous May 1, 2013 at 08:10 pm
We're hurting 6 months after Sandy... We're frustrated... We're MAD... We need action, not talk!Read More Come to the protest rally Sat. May 4th, 2-3PM, Joey Harrison's Surf Club, 1900 Ocean Ave., Ortley Beach.
Sue May 6, 2013 at 03:54 pm
FEMA says "PAY or go away"