Above Average Hurricane Season Expected

Hurricane season officially kicks off today, June 1, and forecasters say the East Coast could see an above average number of tropical systems this year.

In its annual Hurricane Season Outlook, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has predicted up to 18 named storms. Of those, up to 10 could become hurricanes, with winds of 74 miles per hour or more and up to six are expected to be major hurricanes, either a Category 3, 4 or 5 with winds of 111 miles per hour or more. 

The average is 11 named storms with six hurricanes and two major hurricanes.

The Atlantic hurricane season lasts through Nov. 30, with peak activity occurring in early September.

“The United States was fortunate last year. Winds steered most of the season’s tropical storms and all hurricanes away from our coastlines,” said Jane Lubchenco, Ph.D., under secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator. “However we can’t count on luck to get us through this season. We need to be prepared, especially with this above-normal outlook.”

NOAA cites a number of climate factors in making their prediction. They explain that two-degree above average ocean temperatures in regions where hurricanes form and travel are conducive to the development of storms. They also explained that reduced wind shear from La Niña will it easier for hurricanes to travel to our shores.

“In addition to multiple climate factors, seasonal climate models also indicate an above-normal season is likely, and even suggest we could see activity comparable to some of the active seasons since 1995,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.

NOAA's forecasting models are unable to predict whether or not these storms will strike land.

Last September, Hurricane Earl passed off the coast of New Jersey bringing tropical storm force winds and creating hazardous marine conditions. The Garden State hasn't suffered a direct hit by a hurricane in nearly two centuries.