Will A Tropical Weather System Affect the Shore for July 4?

Weather forecasters on Monday were monitoring an area of disturbed weather they say will likely develop into a tropical depression soon and affect weather on the east coast for the Independence Day holiday weekend.

For the Jersey Shore, the extent to which the impending storm could affect the holiday weekend weather depends – as it usually does with tropical systems – on the track of the storm, though forecasters are mostly saying the system will move out to sea by the time it is off New Jersey's coast.

Even in the event the storm is far off the New Jersey shoreline, storm-whipped waves could create hazardous surf and boating conditions in the Atlantic Ocean.

There is a smaller chance the storm could hug the east coast, forecasters said.

“Environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development during the next few days and a tropical depression is likely to form by mid-week while the system moves slowly southwestward, then north and northeastward near the southeastern United States coast,” the hurricane center said in an update late Monday morning.

An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft was scheduled to investigate the low Monday afternoon, if deemed necessary, the hurricane center said.

The European forecast model has predicted the storm will be well off the New Jersey coast by next Saturday, July 5, likely affected the Shore area with heavy surf, though little in the way of clouds or rain.

“The system, which is forecast to become a tropical storm, will hug the coast and could even make landfall in North Carolina before turning out to the Northeast late in the week,” AccuWeather meteorologist Dan  Kottlowski said Monday. "The worst conditions are likely to be Friday over Long Island and perhaps as far north as Cape Cod, Massachusetts."

If the disturbance becomes a named tropical storm, it would be called Arthur, the first of the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season. A storm is given a name when it becomes organized and carries with it sustained winds of at least 39 m.p.h.