NHC: 'Life Threatening' Storm Surge Predicted for Coastline
Forecast models agree on New Jersey strike
Hurricane Sandy's predicted track continued to home in on areas along the New Jersey coastline on Sunday afternoon, as the National Hurricane warned of a "life threatening" storm surge associated with the massive storm.
Barrier islands in Ocean County had already started to flood by late morning, and waves whipped up by already-gusty winds began eroding beaches.
On Long Beach Island, crews made quick work of last-minute checklist items in preparation for the storm, including taking away metal trash and recycling cans at beach entrances.
In Brick Township, officials ordered all residents off the barrier island section of town, and prepared a local state of emergency that would ban nonessential motor vehicle traffic in town after 11 p.m., Police Chief Nils R. Bergquist said.
Meanwhile, National Hurricane Center forecasters said at 11 a.m. Sunday that no significant changes had been made to the predicted track of the immense weather system, and landfall was still expected to occurr somewhere on the New Jersey coast.
Forecast model guidance was "tightly packed," meaning nearly all of the forecast models agreed on the storm's path.
A storm surge map showed a more than 50 percent chance of a four-foot surge in Monmouth, Ocean and Atlantic counties, and a 40 percent chance of a surge up to six feet.
The hurricane center warned the storm surge, a wall of water that rushes onshore as a storm makes landfall, could prove "life threatening."
"There is still some potential for Sandy to intensify slightly as a tropical system," a forecast released by the hurricane center said Sunday, before the storm turns into what is known as a hybrid, "extratropical system."
That hybrid system could prove just as dangerous as the named hurricane, however.
"This transition will not diminish the overall impacts of this dangerous weather system," forecasters noted.
Mrs. G.
12:19 pm on Sunday, October 28, 2012
Daniel, I know this is serious. But I am very confused by the weather reports I am getting from AOL. They seem to say the wind force from Monday and Tues will be no more than 40mph. I don't think people will take warnings seriously if they see that info.
Daniel Nee
12:36 pm on Sunday, October 28, 2012
We're technically under the AOL corporate umbrella, but I do not know where they get their weather information nor do we have any editorial control over them. My advice would be to stick with Patch for the local info. We're all here riding out the storm with you.
Rich Wieland
2:57 pm on Sunday, October 28, 2012
Get off AOL. This is the 21st century! Go to weather.com, Phila. TV channels (most cable systems & FiOS carry local ABC) for Jersey Shore weather news.
Shirley Mazeika
12:39 pm on Sunday, October 28, 2012
I agree we moved everthing indoors, but most of our neighbors are either not doing anything to move things indoors or tie their stuff down. I don't think they think this is gonna be bad cause I keep seeing reports of 40mph winds. Yesterday I saw reports of up to 72mph winds but haven't seen that since.
Shirley Mazeika
12:43 pm on Sunday, October 28, 2012
What is the predicted mph winds for toms river? Do they know or not sure yet?
Mrs. G.
1:21 pm on Sunday, October 28, 2012
Shirley - I saw reports yesterday that indicated 75 mph+. Either way, taking in outdoor items just seems like a good idea. Brick closed the schools for Monday and Tuesday. Even if it turns out to be a fizzle, better safe than sorry.
foggyworld
1:26 pm on Sunday, October 28, 2012
I have been up & down the coast in Bayville & see what looks like a Nor'easter. The wind is coming from that direction but many spots in Bayville are protected first by the barrier islands but also by land that juts into the bay & acts as a buffer for houses closer to Bayview Ave
Went to the county park area and there it was much different. Heavier waves with whitecaps but this looks like a storm of the type we see every winter. I have lived through a hurricane & this isn't one of them.
Also watching cormorants who unusually for them are facing the wind in a NE direction but are not flying inland. Tiny birds did leave but they do in any storm.
Houses on ten foot pilings do not seem to need to even be considered for evacuation. There are a few very low level houses right on the water but many of them are already boarded up & apparently are empty.
The weather reports for our area have now dropped that Hurricane Sandy bit and now are calling it Storm Sandy. For those of us who live out here it's really so far very humdrum and shows no signs of a hurricane.
And there is way too much panic buying on Route 9 which could be calmed down if the town would start referring to this as a storm.
The exception is in the older areas where there are some very tall old trees and they could be hit but again, even they see 57 mph winds a few times a year.
Realism
6:21 pm on Sunday, October 28, 2012
This is dangerous information, do not listen to this, this advice will get you dead!
KC
2:41 am on Thursday, November 15, 2012
Boy in hindsight you really can tell that foggy world really does live in a fog.
Donnie Brasco
1:53 pm on Sunday, October 28, 2012
Put on the weather channel they are saying 75 plus winds and haven't deviated from that forecast at all. I wouldn't listen to aol. Also what we are seeing now is nothing. The full brunt of the storm will be here around 4pm tomorrow and continue through Tuesday. Today will gradually get worse. It's not a matter of panicking, it's a matter of being prepared, informed and ready to evacuate if you have to. Believe me all of us would much rather say this was overhyped when the storm passes. But you have to be realistic. Sandy has already been reported as the largest hurricane in US history in terms of the diameter. This is to be taken seriously. Wishing everyone the best. Stay safe. If you have to evacuate be prepared and pack a duffle bag now. Pack clothes, and essential paperwork (birth cert, ss card, home owner insurance, pet info, medical info) in a plastic Baggie. If you are on Facebook I recommend liking Bob The Weatherman Berger Facebook page. He is reporting continuously on the storm. Another concern as Sandy is squeezed between the cold front coming in and the high pressure is tornados. Take care to all.
Ortley
2:10 pm on Sunday, October 28, 2012
Lets just hope that there is not the damage they are predicting.
Jason
2:58 pm on Sunday, October 28, 2012
I think the wind confusion is between sustained winds which is the constant winds and wind gusts which is what those constant winds climb to every once and a while.
Pat
3:55 pm on Sunday, October 28, 2012
Is there a mandatory evacuation issued for the Baywood section in Ocean Acres in Brick?
kelly dubois
4:30 pm on Sunday, October 28, 2012
Walmart has half price water and are open 24 hours until the storm is over. I got fired today because I mentioned this online. They also have half price generators. I will be at the brick house tonight with a rep from asbury park press. My sister and her friends are having a free bikini car wash in the new 711 parking lot tonight and tomrw night at midnight.Bring your own soap and we will wash it. It's a protest avaunt walmart making their employees go in for over night shifts. Meet us at the brick house at 11pm n wear red, or get a free wash at midnight!
suz
6:59 pm on Sunday, October 28, 2012
Kelly, if this is not true, why are you doing this??!! You are a sick-O! In this time of people just trying to get thru this storm with their lives, you have the nerve to post such a lie. Shame on you!
Tina Marie
6:00 pm on Sunday, October 28, 2012
No genorators at Walmart and they are not open all night!!!
foggyworld
6:49 pm on Sunday, October 28, 2012
Fill up a clean bathtub with water now. Two bathtubs if you have them.
Jason
6:49 pm on Sunday, October 28, 2012
If i was in baywood I'd get out
dew
7:06 pm on Sunday, October 28, 2012
You can use this link to listen to ham radio skywarn and storm chasers. http://www.radioreference.com/apps/audio/?feedId=9559
foggyworld
10:25 pm on Sunday, October 28, 2012
Wish I could but I am deaf and was sad when Berkeley Township's Patch pulled the plug an hour ago on this entire community.
clamdigger
7:17 pm on Sunday, October 28, 2012
use these links, this is the best info out there you can find;
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/phi/
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Brick&state=NJ&site=PHI&lat=40.0649&lon=-74.1174
foggyworld
10:35 pm on Sunday, October 28, 2012
I have been watching both but really Patch could have provided a real community service by keeping these lines open. Weather forecasters are looking at things from high up in the sky but we as people on the ground were able to help others if we lived in certain spots and could convey up to the minute information. It also helped I thought all of us to hold onto our humanity. So to me Patch blew an extraordinary opportunity.
Sandra
7:52 pm on Sunday, October 28, 2012
I read all this and I live across the route 166 area of the Toms River. I am prepared and usually i do not do all I am doing. I live up on a hill and hope that the crap from the hoarders next door all over their yard does not become weapons of mass distruction to my house. Yes they know, everyone does around here and they see the bicycle shop from the houses here all boarded up (first time EVER) guess its a serious storm. I am ready to go, where I have no idea as everyone will make a mad dash for the Pine Belt Arena. So maybe a hotel. Glad I just received my letter from my home insurance saying what a good homeowner i am maintaining my home from their Inspectors report. That might come in handy. Well, got to grab some dog food, and a crate, just in case. See ya on my broomstick ride.
careless fills
8:53 pm on Sunday, October 28, 2012
The entire NJ coast will have storm surge at two or three high tides during the next two or three days. (expected to be 4 - 6 ft, but could be more or less). This could be very life threatening on the barrier islands.
The entire Atlantic coast from VA to MD to DE to PA to NJ to NY to CT to RI will see at least 40 mph sustained winds. No one knows for sure where the sustained 75 mph winds will hit (or if they will even be stronger or if they will diminish), but almost the entire NJ coast is at some risk. The 75mph will not hit everywhere, but will almost certainly hit somewhere. Other places will get somewhere in between.
Better projections for the 75mph will be available on Monday, but by then the sustaimned 40mph and the storm surge will be prevalent for hundreds of miles, so it will be hard to move in any case. That's why you have to be prepared in a safe place sooner than later. The projections for the worst area are uncertain but the certain projections for everywhere are bad enough to make it unsafe to move later.
foggyworld
9:31 pm on Sunday, October 28, 2012
When you say coast, I assume you are speaking of the Ocean's coast and not that of the Bay. Please let me know.
careless fills
11:16 pm on Sunday, October 28, 2012
i was implying ocean coast, but the bay can also see surge and similar wind, so really not that much difference
BN
8:59 pm on Sunday, October 28, 2012
Our future coastline:
http://flood.firetree.net/?ll=39.9334,-73.9778&z=6
foggyworld
9:29 pm on Sunday, October 28, 2012
Glad you are still up and running. Patch pulled the plug on Berkeley Township because they wanted to go home.
Toms River Marksmen
11:59 pm on Sunday, October 28, 2012
It seems to me the clowns who have nothing better to do because they are not homeowners and probably will never be. Take every report for real be fully prepared and have bags packed with all of your important papers in a water tight bag just in case you have to leave. The Pinebelt Arena is fully ready for all residents while Toms River East will be opening tommorow as a secondary shelter. So people dont worry about what others say just get prepared treat this like it is Katrina. And to the Walmart clown thank god they fired you so maybe they could shed there white trash image now.....
kelly dubois
12:23 am on Monday, October 29, 2012
I dnt understand shame on me? I told you what happened. Go to the Facebook page if you don't believe me. It's not my fault you looked at the wrong walmart. Wawa is opened. Shame on them maybe?
east-west
4:40 pm on Monday, October 29, 2012
I live in San Francisco but still have a house on Cedar Run Rd in Bayville NJ....can anyone report if that area is flooded yet?
meimei
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